Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment Research Articles

From isolation to linkage: Holistic insights into ecological risk induced by land use change

While landscape ecological risk assessment (LERA) has the potential to positively impact environmental concerns by informing land use policies, a holistic perspective has yet to be adopted in previous investigations of LERA in relation to land use change. To address this gap, our study introduces a novel research framework that applies landscape ecology principles and methodologies, utilizing the concept of ‘landscape’ as a bridge connecting ecological risk and land use change. Building on relevant literature, we propose three hypotheses regarding the systemic nature of ecological risks. We then elucidate the principles, logic, and methods of LERA and employ high-precision land-use data and landscape pattern metrics to evaluate ecological risks resulting from land-use changes in Xiapu County between 2009 and 2013. Our ecological risk and land use overlay analysis validates three assumptions regarding the systematic character of ecological risks: (1) ecological risks in a local area are influenced by more than just land use changes within its spatial boundaries, (2) similar land use shifts can have varying impacts on ecological risk over time, and (3) ecological risk change cannot be solely attributed to the change in land use type. Finally, based on our enhanced understanding of ecological risks, we propose policy recommendations for land use planning and development at both global and local spatial scales. Our study provides a comprehensive understanding of ecological risks and their relationships with land use change, offering valuable insights for policymakers and researchers.

Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment of Saihanba under the Change in Forest Landscape Pattern

Examining the Saihanba Mechanical Forest Farm, this study utilized Landsat remote sensing data from 1987, 1997, 2001, 2013, and 2020 to interpret land use from the Support Vector Machine (SVM) method, and to decipher evolving land use patterns over the last four decades. Grounded in landscape ecology theory, an innovative evaluation index for landscape ecological risk was introduced, leading to the delineation of 382 ecological risk evaluation units. Employing landscape pattern indices and a method of spatial autocorrelation, we analyzed the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics and spatial correlation patterns of landscape ecological risk across five distinct periods. Geostatistical approaches were used to explore the driving factors of landscape risk. The results indicate that since 1987, there have been significant changes in land use types, especially in forest landscapes, their proportion increasing from 23.19% to 74.55%. In 1987, the proportion of high-risk areas was 72.30%, but in 2020, high-risk areas had significantly decreased and clustered in specific locations. The landscape ecological risks in each period of the study area showed a positive spatial correlation and tended to gather in space. After comprehensive exploration using a geographic detector, we found that landscape type, temperature, and vegetation coverage are the main risk factors. Among them, landscape type has the greatest impact on the landscape and works together with slope, aspect, and precipitation. In forest farm management, only the adaptation and adjustment of single factors are often paid attention to, while the compound effects of multiple factors are ignored. The results of this study bring important reference value to the operation and development of forest farms.

Landscape Analysis and Ecological Risk Assessment during 1995–2020 Based on Land Utilization/Land Coverage (LULC) and Random Forest: A Case Study of the Fushun Open-Pit Coal Area in Liaoning, China

China’s Fushun open-pit mine is the largest century-old coal mine in Asia. Large-scale mining and the use of coal has caused dramatic changes in the regional urban landscape pattern, seriously affecting the ecological function and ecosystem stability of its surrounding landscape. Evaluating the ecological risks of the landscape in the urban areas of open-pit mines contributes to the risk management of regional ecosystems and the sustainable development of society. This study selected six-phase Landsat ETM/OLI remote sensing images from 1995 to 2020 and combined them with the random forest model to carry out an LULC classification of the open-pit mine and its surrounding areas and, on this basis, discusses the evolution of its landscape pattern and evaluates the ecological risks. It fills the gap in the research on the evolution of regional landscape patterns and ecological risks in the study area and improves the automatic classification efficiency of LULC for use in open-pit mines. The results show that the classification accuracy of LULC regarding open-pit mines based on image pixels and the random forest model can reach 30 m, and the rate of accuracy can reach 92–97%. From 1995 to 2020, the coverage area of forest land and building land in the study area has increased and is mainly composed of grassland and undeveloped land. The use of land was transferred to the mining area, the water body area maintained a relative dynamic balance, and the overall vegetation coverage of the mining area was greatly improved; the forest land began to expand from the surrounding area to the mining area in 2010, and the construction land began to move from the areas surrounding the mining area to the surrounding valleys in 2015. The landforms have extended radially, and the landscape sprawl index has increased, indicating the optimization of the ecological environment; the high- and medium-risk areas decreased by 75.51 km2, the low-risk areas expanded by 461.48 km2, and the overall ecological risk index decreased. From this, it is possible to conclude that the landscape restoration project adopted in the study area has achieved great results, and the improvement of the ecological environment also directly affects the increase of construction land. These research results can provide scientific guidance for the rational utilization and sustainable development of land resources in urban areas of open-pit mines.

Landscape pattern changes and ecological risk assessment of major bays in the Philippines

The ecological environment in bay regions is relatively fragile, and the bay regions of Southeast Asia are typical areas of global population growth. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct comparative research on ecological risk assessment in such areas. Five major bays in the Philippines were selected to study the changes in landscape patterns and conduct ecological risk assessments. Land cover information for the five bays in 1990 and 2020 was extracted, and landscape pattern indices were analyzed. Then, the temporal and spatial variations in landscape ecological risk in each bay and the differences from 1990 to 2020 were assessed. The results showed that forestland and farmland are usually associated with stabilization and aggregation, and construction land is expanding, accompanied by the reduction and fragmentation of grasslands and wetlands. There were many medium- and high-risk areas in the Lingayen Gulf, Manila Bay and Bay of San Miguel, which mainly showed changes in wetland, grassland and bare land. The stability of the ecosystem in Macajalar Bay and Davao Gulf is due to the landscape type being mainly forestland. The largest changes across the bays were in grasslands and wetlands, both of which showed varying degrees of elevated fragmentation and separation. Therefore, the development of these bay regions should focus on ecological land such as wetlands and grasslands and treat bare land as the main type of land use while guiding construction land to expand inland and reducing ecological risks along the coast of the bay. This study provides a scientific basis to support the optimization of bay landscape patterns and improve ecologically sustainable development.

Prediction of ecological security network in Northeast China based on landscape ecological risk

The expansion of human activities has significantly increased ecological risks, which threaten the security of ecosystems. This paper takes Northeast China, a national typical ecological barrier region, as a case study to explore the evolution of the ecological environment under various future development scenarios. Considering the complexity of ecological assessments, a comprehensive approach integrating various methods is employed. This includes the Patch-based Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model, Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, a landscape ecological risk assessment index system, the Space Minimum Cumulative Resistance (MCR) model, among others. These methods are used to dynamically assess changes in land use, landscape ecological risk (LER), and the layout of ecological networks. An integrated framework is proposed for identifying, constructing, and optimizing the ecological security network (ESN). The results show that the LER in Northeast China presents a “high in the middle, low around” distribution characteristic. High risk areas are mainly distributed in water bodies and construction lands with high landscape fragmentation and isolation, while low risk areas are primarily in the Northeast forest belt and Inner Mongolia grassland areas with lower landscape vulnerability and separation. From 2000 to 2020, the LER in the Northeast China has increased, primarily manifested in the Greater and Lesser Khingan Range areas in the northern part of the study region. Forecast results indicate significant differences in the evolution of LERs and the layout of the ESN under different socio-economic development scenarios. Under the ecological protection (EP) scenario, the average LER in Northeast China is 0.2215. The area of ecological source lands is 302,405.56 km2, the length of ecological corridors is 179,024.71 km, with 339 ecological nodes and 410 ecological breakpoints identified. Compared with the natural development (ND) and urban construction (UC) scenarios, the EP scenario in Northeast China shows the lowest LER and the most ideal layout of the ESN. This study provides a reference for future land resource optimization and ecological restoration in Northeast China.

Study on Spatial and Temporal Changes in Landscape Ecological Risks and Indicator Weights: A Case Study of the Bailong River Basin

The land use and ecological environment of the Bailong River Basin (BRB) have undergone significant changes in the context of developing urban–rural integration and ecological conservation in western China. As a key ecologically fragile area in the west region, a landscape ecological risk (LER) assessment can reflect the extent to which human activities and environmental changes threaten the ecosystems in the BRB. This study aims to explore the empowerment of indicator weights in an LER assessment. Landscape index weights and LER were analyzed based on land use data for three periods using objective and combined empowerment methods. It was found that the weighting results had apparent scale dependence, and the entropy weight method had the best results in indicator empowerment. From 2000–2020, the LER presented reduced risk, increased heterogeneity, and reduced aggregation. The shift from a medium-risk area to a lower-risk area was the primary transfer type of LER in the study area, and the LER showed a decreasing development trend. So far, research on weight empowerment in LER evaluations has been urgent. This study improved the landscape ecological risk assessment system by selecting an empowerment method that optimally takes into account scale dependence while providing valuable insights into the sustainability of the landscape in this watershed.

Pattern change and ecological risk analysis of Shilin World Geopark landscape

This study considered Shilin World Geopark as the research object and constructed a landscape ecological risk assessment model based on the landscape pattern index by using remote sensing image data during five periods between 2000 and 2020. In addition, it analyzed the spatial and temporal changes of landscape ecological risk in the region. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was utilized to study spatial differences in the landscape ecological risk in the park. The results showed that during the study period, (1) cultivated land, forest land, and rocky desertification land were the main landscape types, different landscape types differed, and the area of rocky desertification land and building land increased by 37.47 km2 and 14.29 km2, respectively, while the area of cultivated land and grassland decreased significantly, with changes of 34.11 km2 and 18.67 km2; (2) landscape ecological risk of the park showed significant spatial differences, the ‘high–high’ risk areas have been concentrated mainly in the central and northern parts of the park, the ‘low–low’ risk areas have been concentrated in the central part and the southwest-southeast area of the park; and (3) landscape ecological risk of the geopark has been increasing, with the degree of landscape ecological risk being spatially positively correlated. The results of the study are of great significance for maintaining ecosystem health of the Shilin World Geopark and optimizing the ecological risk management of the park.

Landscape ecological risk assessment across different terrain gradients in the Yellow River Basin

The Yellow River Basin is an important ecological barrier zone in China, and the landscape pattern has changed greatly due to intense human activities. It is of great significance to explore the dynamic forecasting of ecological risk based on terrain gradient for the ecological security of the Yellow River Basin. In this study, the distribution characteristics of ecological risk from 2000 to 2040 are evaluated by CA-Markov and ERI models. We put forward a new method of landscape ecological risk assessment based on terrain gradient and further analyzed the relationship between ecological risk and terrain index. The results showed that the proportion of the cultivated land and the grassland in the Yellow River basin is more than 73%, with the largest dynamic change in 2020. The ecological risk in the study area showed a spatial pattern of “high in the northwest and southwest, low in the east and south-central.” During the study period, the overall ecological risk showed a decreasing trend, and the high risk was reduced by four times. The future ecological risk of all terrain gradient will show a decreasing trend, the high risks mainly occurred in areas with “flat terrain with low terrain gradient and low vegetation coverage.” This study will provide a new perspective for the dynamic forecasting of ecological risk and the analysis of the change of ecological risk through terrain gradients.

Rethinking landscape ecological risk assessment and its applicability: Counterintuitive findings from coastal areas

AbstractLandscape ecological risk assessment (LERA) serves as a crucial tool for guiding effective environmental management. However, the conventional approach of LERA suffers from two notable drawbacks: the utilization of low‐resolution land‐use data (e.g., 30 × 30 m) and the application of arbitrary evaluation units (e.g., uniformly‐sized grids), both of which introduce uncertainty and inaccuracies into the assessment outcomes. Moreover, the extent to which the traditional LERA accurately reflects the true ecological risk level remains unexplored. To address these limitations, this study presents a modified LERA conducted in Xiapu, a coastal county in China, spanning the years 2013–2015. Fine‐grained land‐use data were employed to overcome the shortcomings of low‐resolution data. Additionally, spatial correlations between land‐use changes and ecological risk alterations were analyzed to unravel the mechanisms behind land‐use changes' impact on ecological risk, while also testing the accuracy of LERA results. Major findings can be summarized as follows: (1) Ecological risk changes in Xiapu during 2013–2015 were relatively minor, with high‐risk areas predominantly concentrated along the coast. (2) A total of 1137 ha of land in Xiapu County experienced changes, with construction land witnessing the most substantial increase. (3) Counterintuitive and unreasonable LERA outcomes were identified, particularly pertaining to illogical ecological risk changes arising from transformations between construction and non‐construction land. (4) Based on the counterintuitive findings, potential factors affecting the limitations and applicability of LERA were discussed. This study represents the first critical examination of the limitations of LERA, offering valuable insights to stimulate future researchers to rethink LERA and emphasize the importance of validating assessment outcomes during its application.

1990~2020年赤峰市土地利用变化及景观生态风险评价

1990~2020年赤峰市土地利用变化及景观生态风险评价

Landscape ecological risk assessment study of the Yunnan section of the Tropic of Cancer

Natural landscapes constitute a vital component of ecosystems, and their stability and diversity are essential in maintaining regional ecosystem functions. The scientific and rational assessment of ecological risks in regional landscapes is crucial for activities such as ecosystem security evaluation, optimization of ecosystem function zoning, and establishment of landscape security patterns. We focused on the Yunnan section of the Tropic of Cancer, employing Landsat 8 remote sensing data to categorize landscape types and construct ecological risk indices. Using software platforms such as ArcGIS, GEE, and Fragstats4.2, an evaluation and spatial characteristics analysis of the ecological risk in the Yunnan section of the Tropic of Cancer was conducted, yielding the following findings: ① The overall level of ecological risk within the Yunnan section of the Tropic of Cancer is relatively low. The lower ecological risk zone covers an area of 19,100.35 km2, accounting for 34.09 % of the total study area, while the higher ecological risk zone spans 2,032.91 km2, constituting only 3.63 % of the total study area. ② Landscape types in areas of lower and low ecological risk are predominantly characterized by woodland landscapes, comprising 90.93 % and 62.19 %, respectively. Conversely, areas with high ecological risk and higher ecological risk are dominated by cultivated land, representing 67.75 % and 95.61 %, respectively. This underscores the importance of strengthening forestry development and controlling the expansion of cultivated land to mitigate regional landscape ecological risks. ③Regions with higher ecological risks in the landscape are primarily in the northwestern part of Yanshan County, the southern part of Gengma County, and the northern part of Wenshan city. These areas are susceptible to the impacts of intense farming, extreme weather, and the karst geological environment. In contrast, regions with high ecological risks are in the central and eastern parts of Mojiang County, the western part of Yanshan County, and the northern part of Wenshan city. These areas are mostly influenced by urban economic development, extensive construction projects leading to deforestation and grassland degradation, and the substantial demand for arable land due to a significant population increase. ④ The spatial pattern of ecological risk in the Yunnan section of the Tropic of Cancer, as indicated by Moran's I index, is positive and exceeds 0.6. The Z score significantly surpasses the reference value of 2.58, with p < 0.01. This indicates a strong degree of spatial autocorrelation and a high positive correlation in the spatial distribution characteristics.

Spatiotemporal changes in land use and residential satisfaction in the Huai River-Gaoyou Lake Rim area

Abstract This research investigates the dynamic interplay between land use changes and landscape ecological risks in China’s Jiangsu Province, specifically focusing on the Huai River-Gaoyou Lake region. Leveraging multi-temporal remote sensing data from 2000 to 2020, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of shifting land cover patterns and their implications. Employing geostatistical techniques, we developed a landscape ecological risk assessment model to quantify ecological vulnerabilities. Additionally, we conducted a resident satisfaction survey aligned with the “Production–Living–Ecological” framework to gain insights into societal perceptions of land use dynamics. Our findings reveal significant land use shifts driven by urbanization, industrialization, and agricultural modernization. While farmland areas have decreased, water bodies and artificial surfaces have expanded, reflecting societal demands and economic growth. The landscape ecological risk assessment model highlights localized vulnerabilities, emphasizing the intricate relationship between land use changes and ecological risks. The resident satisfaction survey indicates overall contentment with various aspects of land use, especially in terms of residential comfort and transportation convenience. However, ecological concerns underscore the need for a balanced approach to land management that prioritizes ecological sustainability alongside economic development.

Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment of Kriya River Basin in Xinjiang and Its Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis

Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment of Kriya River Basin in Xinjiang and Its Multi-Scenario Simulation Analysis

Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment and Spatial Pattern Evolution Analysis of the Central Yunnan Urban Agglomeration from 1995 to 2020 Based on Land Use/Cover Change

The central Yunnan urban agglomeration represents a typical urban cluster in the southwestern region of China. The swift urbanization and land use changes in this region pose a severe threat to the ecosystem. A thorough assessment of the landscape ecological risk in the central Yunnan urban agglomeration holds paramount importance for devising effective risk management strategies and sustainable, high-quality development plans. This study utilizes long-term land-use raster data for six time periods (1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020) in the Central Yunnan urban agglomeration. Using GIS technology, a landscape risk index model is constructed, and a comprehensive assessment of landscape ecological risks in the Central Yunnan urban agglomeration is conducted using the 5 km × 5 km grid analysis method and Kriging interpolation. The results indicate that, between 1995 and 2020, the Central Yunnan urban agglomeration was dominated by forest land, grassland, and cultivated land as the primary land-use types. Forest land covered over 48% of the total area, while grassland and cultivated land accounted for more than 26% and 18%, respectively. Notably, construction land underwent a significant increase, mainly due to conversions from cultivated land, forest land, and grassland. Over a span of 25 years, the study area has experienced a continual rise in landscape ecological risk. The landscape ecological risk was mainly characterized by medium, higher, and high ecological risk. Grassland predominated in areas with medium levels of ecological risk, while cultivated land and construction land were predominant in regions with higher and high levels of ecological risk. Spatially, regions with lower ecological risk were primarily distributed in the Chuxiong Yi Autonomous Prefecture, whereas areas with higher and high levels of ecological risk were concentrated in Qujing City and Kunming City. The spatial aggregation patterns of landscape ecological risk in the Central Yunnan urban agglomeration featured “high–high” (H–H) and “low–low” (L–L) clusters, both displaying an initial increase followed by a decrease. The primary factors contributing to the rise in the landscape ecological risk index were identified as urban expansion, population growth, ecological fragmentation, and vegetation destruction. The study’s outcomes can offer valuable insights for optimizing land resources and promoting sustainable development in the Central Yunnan urban agglomeration.

Landscape pattern evolution and ecological risk assessment of the Yellow River Basin based on optimal scale

Rapid urbanization is a global phenomenon that has altered many ecosystems and created ecological risks. Landscape ecological risk (LER) reflects the extent to which ecosystems are threatened by human activities and environmental change. LER can be also employed to effectively monitor and assess environmental quality. A large number of studies have been conducted to explore the LER in the basin from the perspective of Land Use and Land Cover (LUCC). Ecological environmental issues such as land degradation have seriously hindered the sustainable development of the Yellow River Basin (YRB). Based on the LUCC data of the YRB in the four periods of 1990, 2000, 2010 and 2020, this study aims to determine the most suitable spatial analysis scale using the coefficient of variation and semi-variogram, and analyzes the landscape pattern and LER of the YRB. We found that the landscape pattern of the YRB exhibits obvious scale dependence, and the analysis effect is most effective at the scale of 90 km × 90 km. Throughout the study period, the landscape pattern exhibited increasing fragmentation, a decrease in the degree of aggregation and an increase in the heterogeneity of distribution. In terms of LER, it is in a better state as most of the LER levels have shifted from higher to lower levels, and the proportion of lower and lowest risk is constantly increasing. This study improves the precision of spatial scale investigations and offers valuable insights for future studies on landscape pattern and LER in the basin.

Mapping the knowledge of ecosystem service-based ecological risk assessment: scientometric analysis in CiteSpace, VOSviewer, and SciMAT

The ecosystem services approach offers a more ecologically relevant method to establish environmental conservation goals and implement ecological risk assessment (ERA). The emergence of bibliometrics has facilitated the development of new systematic review techniques. In this study, we utilised CiteSpace, VOSviewer, and SciMAT software, based on the Web of Science database, to qualitatively and quantitatively analyse the ecosystem service-based ecological risk assessment (ESRA) literature knowledge map spanning from 1994 to 2023. This article explored the field’s evolution from macro to micro perspectives, incorporating background information, current trends, and knowledge structure. The findings demonstrate that ESRA has progressed from an initial stage to a phase of global cooperation and policy applications. This transition between stages has been characterised by a shift from focusing on natural processes to understanding human impacts on ecosystems. Key themes identified include ecosystem services, landscape ERA, aquatic ERA and ecosystem health. The overall development of ERA can be observed as a progression through different periods, namely, the traditional era, regional era, and landscape era. Currently, landscape ERA methods based on changes in land use and land cover are widely employed. The study also revealed various challenges in the ESRA field, such as data availability, scale issues, and uncertainty. Future ESRA studies should consider holistic ecosystem services, interdisciplinary approaches, ecological models, and advanced technologies to address complexity. Using big data and informatisation for research offers new opportunities but requires integration and innovation. It is anticipated that ESRA holds promise for ecological sustainability and human wellbeing.

Spatiotemporal evolution of landscape ecological risk in Anhui section of the Huaihe River ecological and economic belt in China

Regional landscape ecological risk (LER) assessment is of great significance for coordinating the relationship between land use and ecological environment, and for promoting the rational allocation of resources, and it is the basis and guarantee for achieving sustainable development. By assessing the landscape ecological risk of the Huaihe River ecological and economic zone, it can promote the development of ecological risk assessment theory, provide a scientific basis for the formulation of ecological civilization construction planning and policies, and help to strengthen environmental monitoring, planning and management, and promote the construction of ecological civilization. Based on the remote sensing image data of land use from 1985 to 2020, the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of land use and LER in the Anhui section of the Huaihe River Ecological and Economic Belt in China were explored. The results showed that: (1) The construction land showed an increasing trend, with an increased area of 4753.35 km2, whereas the cultivated land showed a negative growth trend, with a reduced area of 4487.58 km2. (2) During the past 35 years, the ecological risks in the research area showed a decreasing trend as a whole, with medium-low and medium-risk areas ranking as the main; medium-high and high-risk areas are mainly distributed on both sides of the Huaihe River and in the northern-central part of Suzhou City. (3) Moran’s I values of LER in each period were showing significant spatial autocorrelation and tending to converge spatially. In the future, the ecological security pattern should be optimized for local high-risk deterioration areas.

Landscape ecological risk assessment of an ecological area in the Kubuqi desert based on Landsat remote sensing data

Conducting ecological risk assessment of fragile ecological landscapes is a prerequisite for building an ecological security pattern and a necessary consideration for sustainable development. Engebei ecological demonstration zone is a typical ecologically fragile area located in the Kubuqi Desert. To explore the ecological status of Engebei, an ecological risk assessment model is used to assess its ecological risk, and the spatial correlation analysis is conducted based on the Moran index. The optimal grain size is obtained through grain size effect analysis, which is the foundation of landscape pattern analysis. The landscape ecological risk assessment model is constructed by the landscape indexes. Based on the division of small ecological risk zones, a spatial correlation analysis of ecological risks is conducted on Engebei. Results manifest that: (1) Overall, from 2005 to 2021, its spatial distribution features of landscape ecological risk level are relatively-high and high in the middle, and gradually reduce in the north-south direction, as shown below: the relatively-low ecological risk areas are widely spread, and the overall risk index decrease from 0.1944 to 0.1940; the area of low and high-level ecological risk areas show a decreasing trend, which decrease by 5.0102 km2 and 1.3132 km2 respectively; the area of relatively-low, middle, and relatively-high-level ecological risk areas increase by 0.2655 km2, 3.7803 km2, and 2.4852 km2, respectively. (2) The ecological risk value is correlated positively with spatial distribution, and the spatial aggregation forms are primarily low-low and high-high. (3) The ecological risk values in Engebei have a significant spatial correlation, and the spatial distribution shows a clustering effect, which is consistent with the spatial distribution. The study has certain reference value for the development and comprehensive regulation of ecological construction in Engebei, even in other ecologically fragile areas.

Optimal Scale and Scenario Simulation Analysis of Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment in the Shiyang River Basin

The evaluation of landscape ecological risk (LER) in a river basin holds significant importance for the overall ecological environmental protection of the basin and subsequent sustainable development. The Shiyang River basin, a typical arid inland river basin, was selected as the research object, and the optimal scale of LER research was explored. Multi-period land use data was used to build an LER assessment model and reveal the temporal and spatial changes of LER in the Shiyang River basin. The PLUS model was used to simulate the spatial distribution characteristics and change trends of LER under different scenarios in 2030. The results show that the LER in the Shiyang River Basin has obvious scale dependence, with optimal granularity and magnitude of 60 m and 4.5 km, respectively. LER is dominated by higher risk and high risk categories, with significant spatial differences, showing a trend of low in the southwest and high in the northeast. The LER of the Shiyang River Basin decreased from 2000 to 2020. It is expected that the LER value under different scenarios in 2030 will show a downward trend, and the LER value under the ecological conservation priority scenario will be the lowest. This study can provide a reference for LER assessment in arid inland river basins.

Landscape Ecological Risk Assessment and Zoning Control Based on Ecosystem Service Value: Taking Sichuan Province as an Example

The escalation of urbanization in Sichuan Province has resulted in irrational land use and excessive resource exploitation. These developments have consequently diminished the functionality of ecosystem services and exacerbated landscape fragmentation in the region. These challenges pose significant threats to the ecological security of the area. In this study, we computed the ecosystem service value and the landscape ecological risk index of Sichuan Province from 2005 to 2018. We analyzed the spatial autocorrelation between the ecosystem service value and the landscape ecological risk index, constructing a framework for landscape ecological risk assessment and zoning control based on ecosystem service value. The results show the following: (1) Between 2005 and 2018, the total value of ecosystem services in Sichuan Province increased from CNY 10,261.17 × 108 to CNY 10,310.43 × 108, with forest land and grassland being the primary contributors to the ESV. (2) High- and higher-risk areas within the landscape ecology of Sichuan Province are expanding, forming a pattern of high-level risk concentration from west to east. (3) There exists a negative correlation between the ecosystem service value and the landscape ecological risk index in Sichuan Province. (4) In the ecological conservation zone, the principle of low-impact development must be upheld. In the ecological cultivation zone, adjusting the proportion of land use types is necessary to enhance the rationality of the land use structure. The ecological agricultural zone should fully utilize the advantages of agriculture, while the ecological improvement zone requires focused attention to ecological restoration and land remediation.